By: Scott Yager
Sure there are tons of movie awards that are given out between November and March, but none of them really matter except the Golden Globes and the Oscars. In fact, a lot of people don’t even care about the Globes. The rest of the awards are more or less just forms of evidence for who might eventually go home with the truly important Academy Award a month or so from now. Very often you can look at who took home the Screen Actors Guild Award and assume that they have a good shot at taking home the Oscar. The Writer’s Guild Awards are more often than not an exact mirror image of what movies will get the screenwriting Oscars later on. What makes the Globes a little bit different is that they are voted on by the Hollywood foreign press, media and critics from all around the world.
This international feel normally leads to a slight variation of what will happen down the road at the Oscars. For example, last year Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe for Best Actor, however he lost to Sean Penn at the Oscars. Some people believe that Penn’s win can be attributed not only to the great performance he churned out but also the guilt everyone in Hollywood shared over the passing of Prop 8, something that played very close to home when evaluating Penn’s gutsy performance as Harvey Milk, an openly gay politician. The Golden Globes sometimes end up being a more true assessment of what the average person thought about the movies that year. There are less politics involved and there doesn’t seem to be the “he is in line for an award so we will give it to him” stigma that comes with the Oscars. Having not yet seen Jeff Bridges’s performance in Crazy Heart, but already in tune with all the buzz his performance is getting, I can assume that his four previous Oscar nominations (with no win) might give him an edge up on taking home that specific statue. He seems due for one. Without that sense of history weighing down on the Globes however, don’t be surprised if someone like Clooney takes home the statue. Without further ado… my Golden Globes preview/predictions.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Avatar – Lightstorm Entertainment; Twentieth Century Fox
The Hurt Locker - Voltage Pictures; Summit Entertainment
Inglourious Basterds - The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg GmbH Production; The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures
Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire – A Lee Daniels Entertainment / Smokewood Entertainment Group Production; Lionsgate
Up in the Air – Paramount Pictures; Paramount Pictures
For once in a long time it seems like the five nominees are truly the five movies most deserving of this award and thus, any of these movies would be an acceptable choice for yours truly. As I said though, being that the Globes are slightly different from the Oscars, I do not think The Hurt Locker is going to get as much love as it will from The Academy. Because it is about the war in Iraq and was probably not only the best movie about that particular war, but possibly the best war movie in general of the last ten years it should be the favorite. However, because the Globes tend to be less US-centric, I think it will be overlooked here.
What Will Win: Up in the Air
What Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire
Do not be surprised if Bullock pulls out a win here but, because football is a very American sport, it is also possible that she doesn’t get it. This is good because she doesn’t deserve it, however for some reason I see her coming away with some sort of recognition for the big year she had, which might come in the other category in which she was nominated. Doing what Kate Winslet did last year, get nominated in both acting categories, is something that typically sends the person home with at least one trophy. This dual Globe nomination will most likely lead to her getting an Oscar nomination though, and that might be enough.
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Tobey Maguire – Brothers
As I said before, do not be surprised to see Bridges take home the Oscar, however here I see this going a little differently. Colin Firth is said to have delivered the performance of a lifetime but to me I still see this as a two man race. I see Bridges taking the Oscar but Clooney cleaning up here.
Who Should Win: George Clooney
Who Will Win: George Clooney
Best Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
(500) Days Of Summer – Watermark Pictures; Fox Searchlight Pictures
The Hangover – Warner Bros. Pictures; Warner Bros. Pictures
It’s Complicated – Relativity Media, Scott Rudin Productions; Universal Pictures
Julie & Julia – Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing
Nine – The Weinstein Company/Relativity Media/Lucamar Productions/Marc Platt Productions; The Weinstein Company
I never got this award. Musical/Comedy? Are those two types of movies alike at all? I love that the Hangover is nominated and it was by far the best Comedy of the year and I can’t see many people disagreeing with that. A nomination might be honor enough however and they might try to give this to a more typical award type movie. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that they get this VERY wrong and give it to a movie that didn’t even deserve to be nominated. Because however so much clout is given to musicals nowadays, I just have a sick feeling that Nine will steal what is not rightfully theirs.
Who Should Win: The Hangover
Who Will Win: Nine
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Sandra Bullock – The Proposal
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Julia Roberts – Duplicity
Meryl Streep – It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Now as much as this might be Bullock’s place to take an award it could also be Streep getting one for the dual nomination as well. This seems more likely, however Marion Cotillard has the foreign thing going for her, and she sings.
Who Should Win: Sandra Bullock
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep (Julia & Julia)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Matt Damon – The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – (500) Days Of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg – A Serious Man
You know they want to give this to DDL. Blindly it seems like DDL should win any award he is up for and even though he was good in Nine, and probably the only amusing thing about the movie, he doesn’t deserve to beat out the up-and-coming Joseph Gordon Levitt, who carries this nice little independent romantic comedy. I see another win for Nine here even though it sucked. Until I see a musical go down at this awards show I will continue to assume they will win cause let’s face it, musicals in general are respected more than comedies, and when an actor sings as well as acts, they get a boat load of credit.
Who Should Win: Joseph Gordon Levitt
Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Penélope Cruz – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
If you haven’t seen Precious there isn’t much to say here but if you have, you know who should win this one. It’s a two-woman race between Monique and Kendrick, who was really awesome in Up in the Air. Either one could go home with this one but I am pretty sure Mo’nique goes home with the Oscar. Because the foreign press might not have as good of an idea of how Mo’nique is perceived over here, her performance might not jump out as much as it should, so if Kendrick is going to win one of these, it will be the Globe not the Oscar. I watched Precious and the entire time I was thinking “Mo’nique is good but I don’t know if she should…” and then before I could finish my thought that last scene came around and she blew me away. Definitely the most well acted scene I have seen in years.
Who Should Win: Mo’nique
Who Will Win: Anna Kendrick
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Christoph Waltz. Best Performance in Years. Enough Said. Moving on…
Best Animated Feature Film
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation; Sony Pictures Releasing
Coraline - Laika, Inc.; Focus Features
Fantastic Mr. Fox – American Empirical Picture; Twentieth Century Fox
The Princess And The Frog - Walt Disney Pictures/Walt Disney Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Up - Walt Disney Pictures/PIXAR Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
To be brief, not only will Up win this but it will most likely get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, becoming the first computer animated movie (or any animated movie I think?) to do so.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Clint Eastwood – Invictus
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
When it comes to the Oscar this will definitely go to Katherine Bigelow, who not only deserves it, but will become the first woman to ever win the award. Because of my theory of Hurt Locker being undervalued by the Globes however, I think she could lose here, and if she does it will be to James Cameron for Avatar. I find it hard to believe that she doesn’t win though so…
Who Should Win: Katherine Bigelow
Who Will Win: Katherine Bigelow
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell – District 9
Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers – It’s Complicated
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air
All of these were great and all of these deserve to win. I am okay with anyone going home with this except for Nancy Myers.
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
I am not going to go over the TV nominations because let’s face it, everyone forgets that the Globes even do TV awards until the nominations come out every year and they are reminded. This is a movie awards show and we all know it. That being said, most likely “Mad Men” and “Glee” for those awards. I will be back with an Oscar preview that should make a lot more sense, due in part us seeing how the Globes went, all the movies will have been released and we will all be a month smarter than we are now. This year they have bumped it to TEN Best Picture nominations so it should be interesting to see who sneaks in. Sunday should help us figure that out a little more although I find it hard to believe that any of those Best Musical/Comedy nominations make the cut. As of now I see the Best Picture Nominations for the Oscars being:
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
District 9 or Star Trek (I hope its District 9 but I think one of these gets in)
The last two spots being made up of 2 of these: Nine, A Single Man, A Serious Man, The Messenger
And maybe, just maybe The Hangover will sneak in to try to gain some young viewers for the telecast. Enjoy the Golden Globes this Sunday and I’ll see you come Oscar time!