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By: Scott Yager

Sure there are tons of movie awards that are given out between November and March, but none of them really matter except the Golden Globes and the Oscars.  In fact, a lot of people don’t even care about the Globes. The rest of the awards are more or less just forms of evidence for who might eventually go home with the truly important Academy Award a month or so from now. Very often you can look at who took home the Screen Actors Guild Award and assume that they have a good shot at taking home the Oscar. The Writer’s Guild Awards are more often than not an exact mirror image of what movies will get the screenwriting Oscars later on. What makes the Globes a little bit different is that they are voted on by the Hollywood foreign press, media and critics from all around the world.

This international feel normally leads to a slight variation of what will happen down the road at the Oscars. For example, last year Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe for Best Actor, however he lost to Sean Penn at the Oscars. Some people believe that Penn’s win can be attributed not only to the great performance he churned out but also the guilt everyone in Hollywood shared over the passing of Prop 8, something that played very close to home when evaluating Penn’s gutsy performance as Harvey Milk, an openly gay politician. The Golden Globes sometimes end up being a more true assessment of what the average person thought about the movies that year. There are less politics involved and there doesn’t seem to be the “he is in line for an award so we will give it to him” stigma that comes with the Oscars. Having not yet seen Jeff Bridges’s performance in Crazy Heart, but already in tune with all the buzz his performance is getting, I can assume that his four previous Oscar nominations (with no win) might give him an edge up on taking home that specific statue. He seems due for one. Without that sense of history weighing down on the Globes however, don’t be surprised if someone like Clooney takes home the statue. Without further ado… my Golden Globes preview/predictions.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Avatar – Lightstorm Entertainment; Twentieth Century Fox

The Hurt Locker -
Voltage Pictures; Summit Entertainment

Inglourious Basterds -
The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg GmbH Production; The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures

Precious: Based On The Novel Push By SapphireA Lee Daniels Entertainment / Smokewood Entertainment Group Production; Lionsgate

Up in the AirParamount Pictures; Paramount Pictures

For once in a long time it seems like the five nominees are truly the five movies most deserving of this award and thus, any of these movies would be an acceptable choice for yours truly. As I said though, being that the Globes are slightly different from the Oscars, I do not think The Hurt Locker is going to get as much love as it will from The Academy. Because it is about the war in Iraq and was probably not only the best movie about that particular war, but possibly the best war movie in general of the last ten years it should be the favorite. However, because the Globes tend to be less US-centric, I think it will be overlooked here.

What Will Win: Up in the Air

What Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Do not be surprised if Bullock pulls out a win here but, because football is a very American sport, it is also possible that she doesn’t get it. This is good because she doesn’t deserve it, however for some reason I see her coming away with some sort of recognition for the big year she had, which might come in the other category in which she was nominated. Doing what Kate Winslet did last year, get nominated in both acting categories, is something that typically sends the person home with at least one trophy. This dual Globe nomination will most likely lead to her getting an Oscar nomination though, and that might be enough.

Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan

Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

George Clooney – Up in the Air

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Tobey Maguire – Brothers

As I said before, do not be surprised to see Bridges take home the Oscar, however here I see this going a little differently. Colin Firth is said to have delivered the performance of a lifetime but to me I still see this as a two man race. I see Bridges taking the Oscar but Clooney cleaning up here.

Who Should Win: George Clooney

Who Will Win: George Clooney

Best Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

(500) Days Of Summer – Watermark Pictures; Fox Searchlight Pictures

The Hangover – Warner Bros. Pictures; Warner Bros. Pictures

It’s Complicated – Relativity Media, Scott Rudin Productions; Universal Pictures

Julie & Julia – Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing

Nine – The Weinstein Company/Relativity Media/Lucamar Productions/Marc Platt Productions; The Weinstein Company

I never got this award. Musical/Comedy? Are those two types of movies alike at all? I love that the Hangover is nominated and it was by far the best Comedy of the year and I can’t see many people disagreeing with that. A nomination might be honor enough however and they might try to give this to a more typical award type movie. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that they get this VERY wrong and give it to a movie that didn’t even deserve to be nominated. Because however so much clout is given to musicals nowadays, I just have a sick feeling that Nine will steal what is not rightfully theirs.

Who Should Win: The Hangover

Who Will Win: Nine

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

Sandra Bullock – The Proposal

Marion Cotillard – Nine

Julia Roberts – Duplicity

Meryl Streep – It’s Complicated

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Now as much as this might be Bullock’s place to take an award it could also be Streep getting one for the dual nomination as well. This seems more likely, however Marion Cotillard has the foreign thing going for her, and she sings.

Who Should Win: Sandra Bullock

Who Will Win: Meryl Streep (Julia & Julia)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

Matt Damon – The Informant!

Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine

Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Holmes

Joseph Gordon-Levitt – (500) Days Of Summer

Michael Stuhlbarg – A Serious Man

You know they want to give this to DDL. Blindly it seems like DDL should win any award he is up for and even though he was good in Nine, and probably the only amusing thing about the movie, he doesn’t deserve to beat out the up-and-coming Joseph Gordon Levitt, who carries this nice little independent romantic comedy. I see another win for Nine here even though it sucked. Until I see a musical go down at this awards show I will continue to assume they will win cause let’s face it, musicals in general are respected more than comedies, and when an actor sings as well as acts, they get a boat load of credit.

Who Should Win: Joseph Gordon Levitt

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis

Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Penélope Cruz – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Mo’nique – Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

Julianne Moore – A Single Man

If you haven’t seen Precious there isn’t much to say here but if you have, you know who should win this one. It’s a two-woman race between Monique and Kendrick, who was really awesome in Up in the Air. Either one could go home with this one but I am pretty sure Mo’nique goes home with the Oscar. Because the foreign press might not have as good of an idea of how Mo’nique is perceived over here, her performance might not jump out as much as it should, so if Kendrick is going to win one of these, it will be the Globe not the Oscar. I watched Precious and the entire time I was thinking “Mo’nique is good but I don’t know if she should…” and then before I could finish my thought that last scene came around and she blew me away. Definitely the most well acted scene I have seen in years.

Who Should Win: Mo’nique

Who Will Win: Anna Kendrick

Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Matt Damon – Invictus

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Christoph Waltz. Best Performance in Years. Enough Said. Moving on…

Best Animated Feature Film

Cloudy With A Chance Of MeatballsColumbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation; Sony Pictures Releasing

Coraline -
Laika, Inc.; Focus Features

Fantastic Mr. Fox – American Empirical Picture; Twentieth Century Fox

The Princess And The Frog -
Walt Disney Pictures/Walt Disney Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Up -
Walt Disney Pictures/PIXAR Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

To be brief, not only will Up win this but it will most likely get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, becoming the first computer animated movie (or any animated movie I think?) to do so.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

James Cameron – Avatar

Clint Eastwood – Invictus

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

When it comes to the Oscar this will definitely go to Katherine Bigelow, who not only deserves it, but will become the first woman to ever win the award. Because of my theory of Hurt Locker being undervalued by the Globes however, I think she could lose here, and if she does it will be to James Cameron for Avatar. I find it hard to believe that she doesn’t win though so…

Who Should Win: Katherine Bigelow

Who Will Win: Katherine Bigelow

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell – District 9

Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Nancy Meyers – It’s Complicated

Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air

All of these were great and all of these deserve to win. I am okay with anyone going home with this except for Nancy Myers.

Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino

Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino

I am not going to go over the TV nominations because let’s face it, everyone forgets that the Globes even do TV awards until the nominations come out every year and they are reminded. This is a movie awards show and we all know it. That being said, most likely “Mad Men” and “Glee” for those awards. I will be back with an Oscar preview that should make a lot more sense, due in part us seeing how the Globes went, all the movies will have been released and we will all be a month smarter than we are now. This year they have bumped it to TEN Best Picture nominations so it should be interesting to see who sneaks in. Sunday should help us figure that out a little more although I find it hard to believe that any of those Best Musical/Comedy nominations make the cut. As of now I see the Best Picture Nominations for the Oscars being:

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

Avatar

Precious

An Education

Up in the Air

Up

District 9 or Star Trek (I hope its District 9 but I think one of these gets in)

The last two spots being made up of 2 of these: Nine, A Single Man, A Serious Man, The Messenger

And maybe, just maybe The Hangover will sneak in to try to gain some young viewers for the telecast. Enjoy the Golden Globes this Sunday and I’ll see you come Oscar time!

Tags : Academy AwardsAvatarGolden GlobesInglourious BasterdsNineOscarsPreciousScreen Actors Guild AwardsThe Hurt LockerUp in the AirWriter's Guild Awards

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